|
Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...
|
If there is a Trump Country in deep blue Massachusetts, it’s the South Coast, especially Bristol County.
You can find yourself in MAGA country not just in the usually more conservative towns north and west of New Bedford, but also in Acushnet, in the city’s North End near the airport, in Dartmouth along Cross and Chase roads, off Route 6 west of the mall. The county that for decades had leaned more Democratic than the rest of Massachusetts has shifted Republican in presidential elections.
First it was a couple of little steps in 2008 and 2012, then two leaps for Trump in 2016 and 2020.
Key 2024 election dates
Nov. 5 general election
The general election is Nov. 5, with a new set of deadlines.
Oct. 19 to Nov. 1: Early voting from 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. at the Main Public Library, 613 Pleasant St.
Nov. 5: General election. Polls open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
More voter info
Where do you vote? To find your specific polling location, enter your street address and postal zip code in this online form. Check the list of New Bedford’s polling locations here.
Get additional info on voter registration, eligibility, requirements, etc., at the Massachusetts Secretary of Commonwealth website.
Find a list of Massachusetts candidates in the Democratic and Republican primary races.
Learn more about voting in New Bedford and find applications for absentee ballots and applications for voting by mail at the New Bedford Election Commission website.
Find additional information about voting in Massachusetts at Vote 411, from the League of Women Voters Education Fund.
In the latter two elections, Bristol voters gave Trump 45% and 44% of the ballots in head-to-head matchups with the Democratic candidates. That was about 10% higher than state voters as a whole in both years.
In 2020, Bristol voters delivered the biggest Trump vote in the state of any county, as figured in a head-to-head matchup. In 2016, Bristol voters delivered the second-strongest Trump vote of any Massachusetts county.
Next week, we’ll see whether that MAGA shift continues here.
The election is historic for several reasons. Voters taking part by mail, in early voting or on Election Day, Nov. 5, will see Trump on the ballot for a third consecutive presidential campaign. It’s not the first time in history a major party candidate has run three times straight, but Trump is the first major party nominee competing as a convicted felon, and was the first president to have been impeached twice.
He is running against Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, former U.S. senator and California attorney general and the first woman of color nominated for president by a major party.
Harris supporters stress that Trump’s first term — especially his attempt to overturn the election leading to the melee at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 — shows he cannot be trusted with a second. Trump voters are focused on prices and immigration.
“I’m a Trump person. I say what’s on my mind,” said Darlene Oliveira of the South End of New Bedford, who had just voted early at the New Bedford Free Public Library on Oct. 23. What’s on her mind is illegal immigration. She hears of the state spending tens of millions on emergency migrant shelter, and thinks of her struggles to get benefits for her special needs adult son.
“It pisses me off,” she said.
Bristol County, despite its tradition of an entrenched Democratic Party and labor union influence, particularly in New Bedford, is considered more conservative than the state as a whole. Comparing head-to-head presidential matchups since 1972 shows that this tendency did not surface in presidential voting vis-a-vis the rest of Massachusetts until 2008.
Until Barack Obama emerged in 2008 as the first Black presidential nominee, Bristol consistently lagged behind state voters as a whole in supporting Republican presidential tickets. That includes Ronald Reagan, the first Republican to win Massachusetts on his way to the White House since Dwight Eisenhower’s re-election in 1956, and the only one since 1984.
Tracking the Bristol shift
In 2008, 38% of Bristol voters supported Republican U.S. Sen. John McCain over Obama, 1 percentage point more than all state voters. In 2012, as President Obama ran for re-election against former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the shift rose 2%, with 40% of Bristol voters supporting the Republican.
With the emergence of Trump, though, the pro-Republican Bristol shift grew.
When Trump first ran for president in 2016, 45% of Bristol voters backed Trump over Democrat Hillary Clinton. Trump won only 33% statewide.
In the 2020 campaign against Joe Biden, Trump’s support dropped by 1 percentage point in Bristol compared to 2016, with 44% of county voters casting ballots for him. Still, that was much stronger than Trump’s showing in the head-to-head matchup across Massachusetts, where he won only a third of the vote.
The numbers in this story, based on official election returns since 1972 compiled by the Office of the Secretary of the Commonwealth, represent matchups of the Democrat and Republican candidates alone. The figures do not include third parties, which change from one election to another.
The New Bedford Light did the arithmetic for this story, with a “common approach political scientists use when trying to make comparisons over time,” said Douglas Roscoe, a political science professor at UMass Dartmouth who specializes in American politics, parties and elections.
(The result using the whole field of candidates — including third parties — shows the same pattern, but with different numbers.)
In nearby Plymouth County, support for Trump was nearly even with Bristol in 2016 and 2020. But Plymouth County is more consistently conservative.
Plymouth voters have given the Republican presidential ticket a higher share of votes than statewide voters in every election since 1972.
Trump gains ground in unexpected places
Roscoe did his own breakdown of voting in Bristol County’s four cities and 16 towns in 2016 and 2020.
In 2016, Trump won more votes than Clinton in seven conservative-leaning towns: Acushnet, Berkley, Dighton, Freetown, Raynham, Rehoboth, and Swansea. He won just under half the two-party vote in Westport, Norton and Seekonk. At the bottom of the Trump voting list were Fall River at nearly 40% and New Bedford, where only 33% of voters backed Trump.
Things changed a bit in 2020. Trump still did well in the same seven towns, but he lost votes in all of them but Acushnet, where he gained 1%. He lost the most ground — up to nearly 10% — in Seekonk, Raynham, Attleboro, Norton, North Attleborough, Mansfield and Easton.
Between 2016 and 2020, Trump made his biggest gains in Fall River and New Bedford. His support in Fall River rose from 39% to 44%, and from 33% to 38% in New Bedford.
Going into Nov. 5, Roscoe said he’ll be watching the turnout, much as he said the campaigns do. From 2016 to 2020, the Democrats gained 21,651 new Bristol County voters, a 17% jump; the Republicans gained 12,237, a 12% boost.
One of his questions: Which electorate shows up for 2024?
Trump’s Bristol appeal
Whoever it is, they’re likely to be motivated chiefly by one force: Donald Trump, said Jacob Ventura, a Republican lawyer who ran for state Senate in 2017 and for a New Bedford City Council seat last year.
“People are going out to vote for or against Donald Trump,” Ventura said. “I don’t see this big movement for Harris.”
In the Bristol Trump surge, Ventura sees strains of the county’s cultural conservatism.
State Rep. Christopher Markey, a moderate Democrat whose district includes Dartmouth and part of New Bedford’s Ward 1, sees Trump’s support emerging from working-class and middle-class people who are striving for a better life and resenting government interference.
“You have to look at a lot of the people who grew up in New Bedford and make something of themselves,” Markey said. Perhaps they build a business, they move out to the suburbs, maybe encountering local government regulations along the way, he said.
“There’s a disdain for bureaucracy and systems,” said Markey, a member of an influential political family whose father was mayor of New Bedford and a local judge. “They see that systems get in their way. And this is a guy who fights systems and normalcy … Trump is not normal in the world of politics, and they see that as a badge of honor.”
In this region, he said, “the idea of being anti-establishment” is appealing. “We have a little chip on our shoulder from being down here” — an area where people often feel they’re ignored by the powers that be in Boston.
Though Trump grew up in the wealthy enclave of Jamaica Estates in Queens, and lived the life of a celebrity businessman in the towers of Manhattan, he has managed, for many of his supporters, to embody an aggrieved everyman.
Markey is not a fan of Trump, but he recognizes a masterful political performer.
“Trump puts Barnum and Bailey to shame as a showman,” he said.
One appreciative audience in New Bedford would surely be up in Ward 1, the city’s northernmost territory. Trump never won the ward, but in 2020, he prevailed in Precinct F with 57% of the vote there, the only one of 36 city precincts he’s ever won.
“This ward is definitely the most conservative,” said Ward 1 City Councilor Leo Choquette. “It has the highest percentage of homeowners. That’s not to say that everyone who buys a house is Republican,” but, he sees a community of people who have reached a certain level of security, and fret about losing it.
“You become more protective of what you have,” said Choquette. Whatever Trump’s reputation as an agent of chaos and disruption, the Republican brand, for many people, still means stability.
Also, Choquette said some voters are anxious about an influx of undocumented migrants in Massachusetts, and angry about the state spending up to about $1 billion so far on emergency shelter.
“I think it’s a huge part” of Trump’s appeal in Bristol County, Choquette said, adding that he does not agree with that sentiment.
Indeed, Trump’s Massachusetts campaign chairman, former Bristol County Sheriff Thomas M. Hodgson, said there’s no mystery about why Trump’s popularity is growing in Bristol or anywhere else in the state.
“I see those numbers turning because I think people have had it,” said Hodgson.
He cited high prices and illegal immigration as two main reasons for the discontent he said he hears wherever he goes.
In head-to-head matchups, Trump has lost decisively in Massachusetts, gaining only 35% of the vote in 2016, 33% in 2020.
No matter, said Hodgson; the upset with the status quo is palpable, and a red wave is building — even in Massachusetts.
“It’s a very different time, it’s a very different feeling in the communities,” he said. “You can just feel it.”
He said he has not done the numerical analysis, but he noted that Ronald Reagan won the state twice. Hodgson gives Trump an 8 in 10 shot at winning Massachusetts in 2024.
Political observers contacted for this story said, at best, that’s a state campaign chairman doing his job. Roscoe, who refrained from forecasting the national election outcome, dismissed even a chance of a Trump win in Massachusetts.
“That’s ridiculous,” he said. “It just doesn’t add up. I told you I wouldn’t make any predictions. I’ll predict that one.”
Email reporter Arthur Hirsch at ahirsch@newbedfordlight.org
“melee at the Capitol”? Over 1000 convictions in federal court, fatalities and multiple casualties. Lost any respect for Hirsch. Notice how the media play both sides for safety?
It’s great that there is a two-party competition in this part of the state, if nothing else. Otherwise, there is almost none.
Trump’s known to do well among middle class white people without college degrees and Bristol County is swimming in that demographic. Much of this area has more in common culturally and economically with deep red states than it does with Greater Boston.
The” if it bleeds it leads” culture of the local TV media makes cities seem like hell holes as defined by Trump. Also the immigrant issue is such a scam given the very low immigrant crime rate. Also if unemployment was at 7 percent the MAGA people would be terrorizing immigrants but they are not because the unemployment rate is low and therefore we need their labor. They are here to work. But ‘if it bleeds it leads” along with immigrant crime is a mix about fear and though I don’t buy into the fear , I realize how it sells with conservatives especially in suburbs outside the so called urban hell holes. You could say Democrats are against injustice and Republicans the fear of crime, and Trump tells his supporters that the immigrants and not he, himself are the criminals.
When you consider the large percentage of uneducated people, and the growing welfare class in Massachusetts, it’s not surprising that so many of them vote for a useless compulsive liar like Kamala Harris who refuses to have a formal media interview because the questions & answers aren’t available to her and her team. She’s proven many times in just the past 60 days that she won’t even answer a direct question on her stance of fracking, or stopping illegal immigration, she’s also proven she’s as dumb as a box of rocks, but Democrats will still vote for her because they still have the mentality that Democrats are for the working class and poor while Republicans are for the rich.
When was the last time a Republican raised taxes? Every Democrat raises taxes and spends it wastefully, and the past few MA governors have done the same.
The next time you have a tough month with energy bills, car insurance, property taxes, health insurance, groceries, remember the Democrat Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey and the tens on millions of tax dollars she’s spending to support illegal immigrants and their children who will drive up property tax rates to educate people who are living here illegally.
Your leader is a convicted felon, three wives, countless out of wedlock sexual encounters and bankruptcies.
I do have give him credit for his makeup and hair weave.
Trump is very selective about giving interviews.
He has refused a second debate.
When was the last time a Republican gave us good value for our tax dollar?
Did Baker spend wastefully?
Please define wasteful spending.
Is that spending that does not directly benefit you?
When did your people immigrate?
What percent of New Bedford fish cutters are immigrants, illegals?
If the illegals are deported how will the fishermen get paid?
We the people of Massachusetts selected Maura Healy by a landslide, 64%.
Voter Fraud?
You must be very lonely here.
Have you considered immigrating?
Trump refused a second debate because early voting and absentee ballots had already started.
When Bill Weld was elected, he ended MA residents having to renew their vehicle registration every two years, did that not save every tax payer money regardless of income?
Wasteful spending in the past four years is every dollar MA spent housing, feeding, clothing, educating illegal immigrants and the children they brought here that federal & state tax payers are forced for support. More wasteful spending is on Medicaid and every tax payer dollar to reimburse the ER’s who can’t refuse to treat them.
We’re fishermen not paid before illegal immigrants were illegally hired by the fish processing plants?
My great grandparents came to America in 1907 with the hope of getting a job, working hard, buying a home and enjoying a better life for their families, children went to school, and adults took classes and they all proudly became American citizens.
As for your stupid question about would Immigrate, no, why would I, my wife and I have great careers with great salaries, benefits, paid holidays, paid vacations, paid medical, and we’ve earned it all starting with an education and going to work for companies who offer the great compensation packages to its associates, and because we earned those great benefits and compensation, we’re in the top 15%, so we’re over taxed so we put earned income is wasted on food, housing, utilities, and the two or three children they can’t afford to feed, but of course I’m the bad guy because I’m tired of paying for other people’s needs after paying for my own. On that note, I will relocate to a much more tax payer friendly state where I won’t have to pay state taxes on my retirement income, and where welfare isn’t a generational way of life like it has become in MA & New Bedford in particular.
please hurry up. I can’t take anymore of your victim mindset
PS…..Republican Governor Charlie Baker lowered the state income tax from over 6% to 5.0%.
Interesting article, Mr. Hirsch, but you leave out one very important issue that is changing Democrats into Republicans: OFFSHORE WIND. I was a lifelong liberal Democrat until I began learning more about offshore wind and seeing the grave harm it is already causing to oceans and marine life. I am now an Independent who will vote for Trump solely because he has promised to stop offshore wind. I hope he is able to live up to that promise.
Rather than answering a racist and sexist tirade,at Kamilla and the Democrats ..we should look at policies that UNITE and not DIVIDE our country .Maga,screamed about gas prices..gas prices have declined ..about inflation which was brought on by the BILLION $ tax breaks given Corporate America at the expense of our middle class and our ECONOMY which by the judgement of The Wall Street Journal .Economist 🤔 and most economists is the strongest and ENVY of the world.Still gave challenges YES we do ..Housing needs to be more,affordable and developers subsidized to build..we need a relaxation on zoning regulations but EVERY time these solutions are proposed isn’t it the residents of the tony towns who oppose zoning changes rmtgat would name it possible? Who blame immigrants for problems that they help to maintain and sustain? I’m sick and tired of blaming immigrants for problems that Maga has never tried to solve! Oh and let’s about the Trump vote in Dartmouth or Acushnet ..the descendents of immigrants who benefited from John Kennedys 1958 act lowering quotas to the Azores and Johnsons 1965 act lowering quotas for all.Did they not benefit from this? Did their contribution not make our area richer in quality of life? Go down to the docks and look..most of those,working in the fish houses are Guatemalan..who would replace them? Or the 20% latinoes in the,Fl construction industry.majority in the,Agro fields and packing houses and service industries?As for precinct F in New Bedford and its Trump vote this has always been a retreat for priveleged overpaid New Bedford police (look at their salaries) who do not reflect the culture of the city they are paid to serve..it makes good sound bites and a whipping boy to blame immigrants,for your problems..do did the Germans under Hitler..How did that go for them?
Nobody said they were against immigration, all of our ancestors were immigrants, what we Republicans opposed is ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS. Are you in favor of open borders and places like NYC who are spending billions of tax dollars on everything from hotel rooms to meals delivered 3 times per day for people who have no right to be here? And don’t tell me they’re seeking asylum from the dangerous gangs in central America, they can seek asylum in Mexico, but they won’t because there’s no welfare system to take advantage of in Mexico, and no other free rides like bringing 5 children across the border that federal & state tax payers are forced to pay for when they’re enrolled in school. There isn’t another country in the world who would allow 10 Million + illegal immigrants into their country and pay for their needs. American veterans don’t even get the benefits these criminal illegals border crossers receive, that’s a fact!!!
Nobody said they were against immigration, all of our ancestors were immigrants, what we are opposed to is ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS. Are you in favor of open borders and places like NYC who are spending billions of tax dollars on everything from hotel rooms to meals delivered 3 times per day for people who have no right to be here? And don’t tell me they’re seeking asylum from the dangerous gangs in central America, they can seek asylum in Mexico, but they won’t because there’s no welfare system to take advantage of in Mexico, and no other free rides like bringing 5 children across the border that federal & state tax payers are forced to pay for when they’re enrolled in school. There isn’t another country in the world who would allow 10 Million + illegal immigrants into their country and pay for their needs. American veterans don’t even get the benefits these criminal illegals border crossers receive, that’s a fact!!!
It is known that there are generally two major factors that effect how voters vote. First, rural vs urban. Rural areas tend to vote conservative due to a sense of independence and a desire for small government. Urban areas tend to be more dependent on government assistance since the issues of urban life tend to be more complex so that people come to depend on government to solve problems.
Second, higher education vs lower education. Better educated communities tend to vote more liberal than lower educated communites. The better educated are often the more informed and more likely to analyze and evaluated candidates and policy positions. Less educated voters tend to vote based on personality and are less likely to fact check rhetoric and policies.
Having said that, I recognize that these are generalizations and people from across various demographics may vote differently than stated here.
At the turn of the 20ieth century the United States was in an industrial revolution. Factories were being built, new innovations brought about new products. A laber force was urgently needed, therefore immigration was encouraged and made relatively easy.
As time evolved and the need for labor decreased (and as anti-immigrant vervor increased), the rules to immigrate became more strict.
Fast forward to 2024 and the rules to immigrate are such that some individuals are on list for up to 10 years, if not more. A person who live in a country that is n war or were the economy is devastating or violence threatens their lives, can’t wait to go through the cumbersome process of legal immigration. So they, out of desperation, take their chances and try to seek asylum or cross the border undocumented.
No country has to allow this, but to lable these people as drug dealer, rapist and criminal is unjust and un warrented. While there may be a few bad apples the vast majority of immigrants are law abiding, hard work people seeking a better life for themselves and their families