Will South Coast Rail’s ‘full build’ ever happen?

Nearly a decade ago, Massachusetts transportation officials released a final plan to deliver fast, electrified passenger train service between the South Coast and Boston in the 2030s. Today, it’s not clear when — or if — they will ever make good on that promise.

Last year, the South Coast finally got the MBTA connection it had been promised since the early 1990s. You can now take a 100-or-so-minute train trip between New Bedford and Boston, riding an extension to the former Middleborough/Lakeville Line. When the extension opened in March, it was celebrated as a monumental achievement, a rare and special moment for an economically disadvantaged region that often feels left behind by state leaders. 

But that was not the end of the South Coast Rail project. Or at least, it wasn’t supposed to be.

The second phase, known as the “full build,” would instead connect to the Stoughton Line. It’s a more direct route offering a shorter trip time. It’s also more expensive and would take longer to finish, partly because the project would need extensive environmental permits to run tracks through protected wetlands.

The full build isn’t some wish-list item — this two-phase approach was a formal plan that state transportation officials released in 2017. The Stoughton route was the preferred option at the time, but costs were rising and delays were piling up. Then-Gov. Charlie Baker decided to split the project in two, providing long-awaited train service sooner, using the Middleborough route, while the state worked to finish the Stoughton route sometime in the 2030s.

Now, as phase one nears its first anniversary, state transportation officials are nearly silent on how they plan to finish the job. It’s not clear if they even can.

The Light asked Gov. Maura Healey whether the full build is still a priority at a campaign event in New Bedford on Monday. She answered vaguely. She said that MBTA General Manager and Transportation Secretary Phil Eng is “looking at” it and that more details would be available “soon,” declining to give a specific timeline.

“Everything right now is a balance in terms of which investments we make and where,” Healey said.

The full build has no funding in the MBTA’s current five-year Capital Investment Plan. An MBTA spokesperson referred The Light’s questions to the Massachusetts Department of Transportation; a MassDOT spokesperson referred to comments MBTA officials made about the full build during public meetings in 2024.

“Officials clarified that the MBTA is currently prioritizing available funding toward much-needed maintenance and repairs of existing system infrastructure,” the statement said.

The MassDOT spokesperson declined to make officials available for an interview and didn’t answer a list of questions about the full build’s timeline, funding, or other basics, like the name of the person currently in charge of the project. 

New Bedford city officials said they haven’t received any word from the state on the second phase of the project. The conversation appears nonexistent at the Statehouse.

“I haven’t heard anything on this,” said Rep. Chris Hendricks, who represents New Bedford and sits on the Legislature’s transportation committee.

With the state facing financial uncertainty from federal funding cuts, and many transportation projects competing for limited funding, lawmakers said they can’t imagine the South Coast Rail full build being a priority right now.

One former lawmaker says the full build is probably impossible.

Why the full build is a long-shot

Former state Rep. Bill Straus knows what it took to get South Coast Rail’s first phase across the finish line.

He represented the suburbs east of New Bedford starting in 1993, and co-chaired the transportation committee from 2011 until he chose not to run for reelection in 2024. He sat in on meetings with governors as they struggled to keep the project moving through budget increases and permitting nightmares. The project has now spanned at least seven or eight gubernatorial administrations, depending on how you define the start date.

The full build has two main problems, Straus said in an interview this month: It’s infeasibly expensive, and it can no longer get through the environmental permitting process.

Let’s start with the price tag. Initial estimates from 2017 pegged the total cost of the full build at $3.2 billion, including nearly $1 billion for phase one. Adding inflation, higher construction costs, and the necessary land acquisitions, Straus thinks the full build would cost at least $6 billion or $7 billion today. There’s no obvious source for that level of funding, he said.

Then there are the environmental permits. The Stoughton route goes through the protected Hockomock Swamp, along with various other natural areas, triggering a difficult approval process. The state requires an environmental analysis for projects affecting wetlands, and it would have to prove that there is no other viable option but to go through the protected area, Straus said.

“Well, guess what? The commonwealth has proved there is an alternative — it’s viable, it’s in use, and it’s popular,” he said.

That alternative is the Middleborough route that Massachusetts just built, and that thousands of riders are using each day. That’s why Straus thinks the Stoughton route would never pass environmental review.

What the Stoughton route offers

The full build, if it ever materializes, would provide a faster and more climate-friendly trip. A 2017 estimate projected that it would attract more than double the ridership compared to phase one.

The Stoughton line takes a more direct path to Boston, and the electric trains that the full build calls for can accelerate and decelerate faster than the diesel trains that the commuter rail network currently uses. A train from New Bedford to South Station, via Stoughton, was estimated to take 77 minutes — shorter than the 90 minutes originally projected for the Middleborough route.

Current train trips between Boston and New Bedford actually take between 97 and 125 minutes, usually 100 to 110 minutes, according to the latest Fall River/New Bedford Line schedule. 

Making the Stoughton line fully electric, as the full build calls for, would cut down on emissions. For years, transit and environmental advocates have called on the MBTA to transition its diesel commuter rail fleet to electric locomotives. Only the Fairmount Line has been approved for electrification, starting in early 2028.

The Stoughton line is already wired for electric trains, including the trains Amtrak already runs on the line every day. The MBTA would only need to replace its diesel locomotives with electric ones.

This route would also bring MBTA service to Easton and Raynham, and add a second new stop in Taunton. In Boston, riders would have the option to get off at Ruggles Station or Back Bay Station before the train reaches South Station.

King Solomon’s multibillion-dollar train project

In hindsight, the environmental permitting paradox may seem foreseeable. So, why would Governor Baker split the project in two?

Straus said that was also a matter of permitting. The previous governor, Deval Patrick, had laid much of the groundwork by securing some of the state and federal permits needed for the Stoughton route. The Baker administration would have had to start the process over if it had scrapped the Stoughton plan and just gone for the Middleborough route, Straus said.

But, since Baker held onto the Stoughton plan and added the Middleborough route as an interim step, that only counted as a modification of the existing permit, Straus said. The Baker administration could deliver train service sooner without starting from scratch.

So was it just a permitting maneuver, or did Baker sincerely plan to complete the full build? Straus declined to opine on the governor’s internal motives.

“Whether it was sincere or devious, it worked,” he said.

The 2017 decision to split the project up didn’t please everyone. Critics, including New Bedford Mayor Jon Mitchell, saw the Middleborough route as inferior and too long for a realistic commute. 

“Mayor Mitchell has long advocated for the Stoughton route,” Public Information Officer Jonathan Darling said in an email to The Light in January. “Mayor Mitchell made clear back then that although the Middleboro route would be beneficial to Greater New Bedford, it would not see as many riders as the Stoughton route.”

But nowadays, Mitchell is focused on other expensive state-funded construction projects. Darling followed up with additional comments a few days after his first message to The Light.

“While the Mayor continues to advocate for the development of the Stoughton route, he believes there are other pressing priorities for state capital investment, including the reconstruction of the New Bedford-Fairhaven Bridge, the new airport tower and terminal, the rehabilitation of state pier, and a new consolidated regional courthouse,” Darling’s second email said.

Straus publicly supported Baker’s decision to greenlight the Middleborough route. He said the South Coast wouldn’t have a train connection today if not for the governor’s choice, and he thinks recent data showing robust ridership is evidence that it was the right path.

Potentially, eventually

State Sen. Mark Montigny agrees that the two-phase approach was necessary. The New Bedford lawmaker is still holding out hope for the full build.

“I’m most concerned with making what we have well-maintained and even better, but I don’t want to lose sight of this,” he told The Light recently. The Stoughton line is still the superior route, he added, because of the shorter trip time.

Montigny helped pass the bond bills allocating funding for the first phase of the project. He said the political will to fund the full build would need to come from the governor’s office, because only the executive branch can choose to spend the bonds that the Legislature authorizes.

He said he understands why the project wouldn’t be a priority for state officials right now, but he urged Gov. Maura Healey to “keep it on the front burner.” Though he didn’t want to lead constituents on, he said he thinks technological advances in the coming years might make the full build less expensive and easier. 

“I think it potentially can happen, eventually,” he said. “I certainly can hope.”

Email Grace Ferguson at gferguson@newbedfordlight.org

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