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Preliminary election night in New Bedford is usually when the city’s inner circle of politicians and activists hobnob and obsess over esoteric turnout percentages. This Tuesday was on track for more of the same, as about 20 people gathered in City Hall for election results, representing the usual cadre of candidates, spouses, volunteers, and a smattering of reporters.
But then something strange happened: three challengers beat out an incumbent.
No incumbent among New Bedford’s at-large councilors has lost reelection in more than a decade. The only way new at-large candidates have won their seats is through the retirement of a sitting councilor.
Shane Burgo is the only new at-large councilor within the last decade, winning an open seat in 2021. The other at-large seats have belonged to the incumbents for, in some cases, decades: Brian Gomes (more than 30 years); Linda Morad (20 years, and who is not seeking reelection this year); Naomi Carney (12 years); Ian Abreu (10 years).
So it was a surprise to the small assembly inside City Hall that three challengers — Devin Byrnes, James Roy and Jennifer Arruda — finished ahead of the incumbent Carney, former City Councilor Scott Lima, and current School Committee member Christopher Cotter, all of whom are known political entities in New Bedford.
All these candidates will advance to the November general election, where higher voter participation could change the political calculus again. But since preliminary results were announced late on Tuesday evening, candidates and voters alike may be wondering if there’s a sea change happening in New Bedford.
The Light’s analysis of preliminary election data shows there is huge potential for change that could occur in the November election. Most notable is the city’s lackluster 5.7% turnout in Tuesday’s preliminary.
Turnout in the general election could double, said Sherrie Silva-Santos, a staffer with 41 years of experience running New Bedford’s elections. On Tuesday, she almost exactly predicted the preliminary turnout, at 6%, and she pointed out that recent general elections have hovered around 12-15%.
That means Tuesday’s voters may not accurately reflect who will cast their ballots in November, and the preliminary results could be skewed toward the more politically involved class of New Bedford.
Breaking down the data reflects just that.
Voters in Ward 5, the wealthier West End, turned out at more than double the rate of Wards 2, 3, and 4 — representing the downtown, waterfront, and Near North End neighborhoods.
Historically, Ward 5 voters have participated at higher rates. And nothing may represent the political engagement and ambition of that ward better than the composition of candidates themselves. The preponderance of at-large candidates — seven out of 12 — live in Ward 5.
West End voters had a buffet of candidates from their neighborhood, representing a range of ideological perspectives. The rest of the city, especially the working class tenement districts of the South and North Ends, had far less representation — if any — from their neighborhoods.
The turnout in each ward makes more sense after understanding where the candidates come from, and who they’re speaking to — both in campaign materials and at their neighborhood haunts.
Beyond just a geographical concentration of candidates, some demographic homogeneity could be alienating to voters as well. Hispanic and Latino voters, for example, have been the fastest growing demographic for a decade, yet still have practically no representation in city politics.
In August, The Light and Boston University found in a joint project that Hispanic and Latino communities lag far behind other groups in voter participation — including ethnic Portuguese and Cabo Verdean voters. Their tendency to stay home is more pronounced during local elections.
One in four New Bedford residents now identifies as Hispanic or Latino, which far exceeds the Cabo Verdean population that New Bedford is known for. Yet candidates do not typically emerge from New Bedford’s Hispanic communities or neighborhoods, and campaigns do not typically target Spanish-speaking residents.
The result: no candidates on the City Council claim Hispanic heritage, according to The Light’s previous reporting.
The trend was directly observable on Tuesday. Areas with higher Hispanic populations, as determined through recent census data, tended to correspond with lower voter turnout. (Census tracts and political wards/precincts do not line up. Click on each data point in the above chart to see more information about each comparison.)
While true that Hispanic and Latino voters tend to be more recent immigrants, and therefore many are not yet citizens, the majority of New Bedford’s Hispanic and Latino population are full U.S. citizens, The Light has reported.
Hispanic and Latino voters could be the most powerful untapped voting bloc in New Bedford. And the candidates who can successfully reach these voters may upend the traditional logic of New Bedford politics.
Lastly, Tuesday’s results were notable for another result. Of the two female candidates running for an at-large seat, neither finished inside the top five. If that result holds in November, it would be the first time in at least 20 years that no woman has held an at-large councilor seat.
Arruda, a challenger, finished sixth. Carney, the veteran and incumbent at-large councilor, finished seventh. Morad, a long-time at-large councilor, is not seeking reelection this year.
Women in New Bedford achieve higher educational outcomes than men (including more associate’s, bachelor’s, and graduate degrees). Women also vote in higher numbers across Massachusetts. Yet women have a lower median income and are more likely to be in poverty, according to recent census figures.
And while the at-large women are on the outside looking in, only two women are running in the ward races: incumbent Maria Giesta, in Ward 2, and the challenger Renee Fernandes in Ward 5.
As candidates make their final pitches to voters over the next month, they’ll have to persuade those who stayed home during the preliminary to come out. That could mean expanding across neighborhood boundaries, into new ethnic and language communities, or reaching the women who predictably vote in (and often decide) New Bedford’s elections.
On Nov. 4, the general election will finalize the five seats for at-large councilors — plus six ward councilors, three School Committee members, and one Assessor. For The Light’s full election coverage, including more video interviews and candidate panels, stay tuned to the Election 2025 page.
Email Colin Hogan at chogan@newbedfordlight.org
It would have been interesting to know out of the less than 6 % that voted in this primary, what percentage actually came from the Hispanic and Latino community.
Our Council will need to do a better job for this city to be successful, we need new leadership who will work hard to resolve issues, make tough decisions, and not let them sit in commitee. Our city is broke and to contine to expand city goverment by raising taxes will not benefit New Bedford.
City Budget:
– Stop raising taxes (Residents have had enough).
– Stop the expansion of City Government (the city is broke).
– Make cuts and streamline all city departments across the board.
– Work to resolve costly Pension Issues.
– Work to resolve rising Healthcare Costs.
– Stabilize School Department growth that has crippled the City Budget.
– Sell City Unused Owned Buildings (the city has amassed close to 100).
Get these issues out of the council:
– Pass the Recall
– Stop Longevity Pay.
– Let the people vote on whether Police Officers should be United State Citizens to serve.
Address Neighborhood Issues:
– Stop Four Wheelers, Scooters,and Motorcycles from terrorizing our city.
– Stop Drinking, Loud Music, Vulgarity, & Littering at our beaches, parks, & around the city.
– Stop Speeding all over our city.
– Stop Littering all over our city.
– Fix Poor Roadways (Pot Holes, Pot Holes, and more Pot Holes).
We need New Leadership on the Council who will bring residents a decent quality of life, make our streets safe, address and resolve issues so there not around for the next election in two years. Get our and vote New Bedford!
Will a higher turnout in the Hispanic and Latino communities put the candidates you want in office?
These results will be very different in THE FINALS.
To help expand the tax base instead of cutting taxes (since taxes fund city spending), the city council should eliminate parking minimums, allow 5over ones by right, and get rid of single family zoning. This is a city, not a suburb. Build build build!
Maybe the Light could hire Español and Portugués speaking staff to translate election articles?
I think having a Hispanic writer/reporter is a great idea, if you wish to increase voter participation within this diaspora.